The purpose of these charts is to provide a historical overview of the mortgage loan interest rate for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage loan and to provide a historical overview of the key components of monetary policy implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
Prospective home buyers should understand that the Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate as part of its monetary policy responsibilities; that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is closely tied to the federal funds rate; and that the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate tracks the 10-year Treasury yield. By understanding these relationships, buyers are better positioned to assess housing affordability in their market and to make a prudent home purchase decision.
Historical Rate Analysis
24-Month Rate History
| Month | 30-Yr Mortgage | 10-Yr Treasury | Fed Funds Rate | Spread (Mortgage − Treasury) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2024 | 6.84% | 4.36% | — | 2.48% |
| October 2024 | 6.72% | 4.10% | — | 2.62% |
| September 2024 | 6.08% | 3.72% | — | 2.36% |
| August 2024 | 6.35% | 3.87% | — | 2.48% |
| July 2024 | 6.78% | 4.25% | — | 2.53% |
| June 2024 | 6.86% | 4.31% | — | 2.55% |
| May 2024 | 7.03% | 4.48% | — | 2.55% |
| April 2024 | 7.17% | 4.54% | — | 2.63% |
| March 2024 | 6.79% | 4.21% | — | 2.58% |
| February 2024 | 6.94% | 4.21% | — | 2.73% |
| January 2024 | 6.69% | 4.06% | — | 2.63% |
| December 2023 | 6.61% | 4.02% | — | 2.59% |
| November 2023 | 7.22% | 4.50% | — | 2.72% |
| October 2023 | 7.79% | 4.80% | — | 2.99% |
| September 2023 | 7.31% | 4.38% | — | 2.93% |
| August 2023 | 7.18% | 4.17% | — | 3.01% |
| July 2023 | 6.81% | 3.90% | — | 2.91% |
| June 2023 | 6.71% | 3.75% | — | 2.96% |
| May 2023 | 6.57% | 3.57% | — | 3.00% |
| April 2023 | 6.43% | 3.46% | — | 2.97% |
| March 2023 | 6.32% | 3.66% | — | 2.66% |
| February 2023 | 6.50% | 3.75% | — | 2.75% |
| January 2023 | 6.13% | 3.53% | — | 2.60% |
| December 2022 | 6.42% | 3.62% | — | 2.80% |
Spread = 30-Year Mortgage Rate minus 10-Year Treasury Yield. A wider spread indicates elevated mortgage market risk premium. Data cached every 12 hours. Source: Freddie Mac, U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve via FRED — St. Louis Fed.
Understanding the Rate Relationships
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it is the primary instrument of U.S. monetary policy and the starting point of the interest rate chain that affects mortgage affordability.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is closely tied to the federal funds rate and reflects market expectations for future economic growth and inflation. It serves as the benchmark rate to which most long-term borrowing costs — including mortgage rates — are pegged.
The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate tracks the 10-year Treasury yield with a spread that reflects credit risk, prepayment risk, and lender profit margins. Historically this spread has ranged from 1.5% to 3%. When the spread widens, mortgage costs rise faster than Treasury yields, tightening housing affordability even without Fed action.
The spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year Treasury yield is a critical affordability signal. A spread above 2.5% indicates elevated mortgage market stress. The post-2022 tightening cycle produced historically wide spreads — meaning buyers paid significantly above what Treasury yields alone would predict, compounding the affordability burden of rising rates.
